PNG Macro Environment
KFM holds the view that GDP growth will be restrained to below c.4.0% in 2016 as commodities continue to follow a downward taper, with the exception of gold. KFM believe the effects of the global commodity glut on the extractive industries to provide impetus for another revised budget as prices fall below budget forecasts. The agriculture, mining and utilities sectors will remain adversely affected by the El Nino. The third quarter CPI update for rolling 12 month inflation was 5.8% while BPNG announced to maintain the Kina Facility Rate at 6.25%. KFM maintains its view that inflation will be around 6.0% mainly driven by the downward momentum of the Kina against the USD
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